Reviving a Party: What Went Wrong for the Democratic Party in 2024 and How They Can Reclaim the White House in 2028
Art Credit: Mai Preisser
2,284,967 votes. 86 electoral votes. 1.5 percentage points. That is how close the Democratic party came to retaining control of the White House in the 2024 Presidential election. With the late exit of former President Joe Biden from the race, then-Vice President Kamala Harris was put into a very tough situation with only 107 days to campaign. While she gave it everything she had, it was not enough time. Unfortunately for the Democratic Party, the White House wasn’t the only branch of government they would not have control of in 2025. Republicans won six more Senate seats and five more House seats than Democrats to regain control over both chambers of Congress.
So far, this unified Republican government has been relatively unpopular among the public. According to a Gallup poll, Republicans in Congress have an approval rating of 29%. Adding on to that, The Economist found that President Trump has a net approval rating of -16%, with 40% approving and 56% disapproving. The Democrats have an opportunity to capitalize on these low approval ratings in both the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 Presidential election. However, they won’t just sail to victory without any changes. Democrats in Congress currently have an even lower approval rating (24% in the Gallup poll). Former Democratic President Joe Biden exited the White House with a 40% approval rating in the week before President Trump was inaugurated. It will be key for the Democratic party, especially its 2028 Presidential candidates, to address what issues caused them to lose popularity among the American people. I will discuss three of the most likely potential candidates to run for the 2028 Democratic Presidential nomination. I will also discuss what issues hurt the party in the last election and how they should improve upon them.
The main reasons why the Democratic Party with Kamala Harris as the nominee lost the 2024 Presidential elections were the economy, immigration, and the war in Gaza. A Pew Research poll conducted prior to the 2024 election found that a survey of registered voters were more confident in Donald Trump’s ability to implement good economic and immigration policy. In October 2024, a formative month in election cycles, the national inflation rate was at 3.3%, with it peaking at 9% in 2022 during the Biden administration. Everyday Americans were feeling these increases in prices the most, looking for any kind of change they could make to reduce these burdens. Vice President Harris was not able to convey the point enough that the United States was actually in the middle of the pack globally in terms of increase in inflation growth from the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2022. As a result of not highlighting this and focusing more on social issues, the party lost out on many working class voters that cared more about the economy. The Trump campaign also did a phenomenal job on pinning many issues, including economic, on the large influx of immigration. An AS/COA poll found that a majority of people surveyed believed undocumented immigrants made these things worse: the economy, social and cultural values, public resources, and crime. By convincing voters that the Biden administration allowed for a large number of people to enter the country, Trump was able to score a lot of voters through this. Lastly, Kamala Harris saw a 33 percentage points reduction in voters of Middle Eastern descent. This was largely driven by the Biden administration not having any real pushback on Israel for the attacks they have been committing on Gaza. Democrats are going to really need to separate themselves more from Israel if they want a better chance in 2028.
The Candidates
The three candidates I am going to discuss in this article are former Vice President Kamala Harris, Governor of California Gavin Newsom, and Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro. According to most polls, Vice President Harris and Governor Newsom are the two leaders in the 2028 Democratic Primary. While Josh Shapiro isn’t third in most polls, I believe he has a stronger chance than others of winning the nomination. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg doesn’t have the experience yet to get him to the presidency, as no one has ever made the jump from a mayor or Cabinet Secretary to the presidency. U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has a harder chance by making the jump straight from the House of Representatives to the White House. 20th President of the United States James Garfield is the only person to jump straight from the House of Representatives to being in the White House. Josh Shapiro's time as governor helps him more in swaying the voters to believe he will be a good President. Thirteen former United States Presidents were governors prior to being President, with six of them holding that position when they were elected.
One of, if not the most likely, candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2028 is former Vice President Kamala Harris. One strength that she offers is experience in every branch of government. She has experience as a lawyer (legal), a Senator (legislative), and the Vice President of the United States (executive). The Democratic Party would benefit from campaigning a lot more on this than they did in 2024, highlighting her ability to understand how to best use these branches to the benefit of the American people and create bipartisan connections. During her campaign, she promised that she would create a bipartisan council of advisors and appoint a Republican to her cabinet. In the 2028 election this could both help and hurt her. On one hand, people could appreciate the attempt to tone down polarization and resume working together. On the other hand, progressive voters might not appreciate Republicans having influence in the White House after the Trump administration.
One weakness if she decides to run for the presidency is that she has already run for President of the United States three times. Democratic primary challengers would likely use this as a talking point against her, emphasizing how she might just lose again and allow Republicans to retain the White House. Something else that hurts her is that she doesn’t have a lot of experience running an election where she has to win over different types of voters. All of her previous offices outside of the Vice Presidency were won in California. California has a Democratic statewide and federal elections that really only elect Democrats. This means that she does not really need to tailor her message too much to win over swing voters. As a result, she is going to need to learn how to create a message that speaks to the working class rather than the Democratic elite. This will be crucial to the Democrats retaking the White House, as the working class is a historically safe Democratic voter base that has begun to increasingly vote Republican. Despite the difficulties, the Democratic candidates should not automatically disregard her as she is still a very strong candidate. She will just need to amend her platform from her 2024 campaign.
The biggest obstacle Vice President Harris would face in a presidential election is separating herself from the Biden administration's mistakes and unpopular policies. USA today found in a 2024 poll that Americans overwhelmingly believed the country was heading in the wrong direction. Egg prices were one of the most popular talking points during the 2024 presidential election, highlighting the inflation and rising prices that had been plaguing Americans’ daily lives. One of the policies that contributed to inflation was the American Rescue Plan. This policy, which was an economic package that helped provide funding for hospitals and relief for American states and cities during the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to inflation due to the amount of money it created. This should not be considered a terrible policy on the part of the Biden administration. Despite its critical role in getting the U.S. through the pandemic, a lot of people don’t do enough research to understand that. Many swing voters see this as a Biden-Harris policy that sharply increased their everyday prices.
Another issue that many voters did not approve of during her Vice Presidency was immigration. A Gallup poll in February of 2024 found that immigration was the biggest issue that made them disapprove of the Biden administration, with 19% of people citing that as the reason. In 2021, former President Biden tasked Kamala Harris with figuring out the cause of increased migration to the United States. The Trump campaign was able to spin the increased migration to our country as the reason why we were seeing increased crime and drug related deaths. By attaching the term “border czar” on to Vice President Harris, they were able to blame her specifically for the crisis at the border. Despite her role at the border being mainly diplomatic, the Trump campaign was able to rope her into any bad decisions made at the border by other members of the Biden administration. If she is to run again, she will need to call out the mistakes of President Biden in not having strong enough border security and lay out a plan that provides the layout for better border security than under their administration. However, she also needs to advocate for the end of the aggressive tactics that ICE is using against people that we are currently seeing. Her plan should include strong vetting of who enters our country, making the citizenship process much easier and quicker, and promising to end the actions that ICE is currently using.
With California governor Gavin Newsom’s increasing presence on the national stage, there is a significant chance that he announces his first presidential campaign for the 2028 election. His position as Governor of the 5th largest economy in the world poses him as a leader that can handle running a large country. California on its own carries more than a tenth of the United States population, with almost 40 million of the 340 million American citizens. Gavin Newsom could leverage this to prove he is ready to handle the challenge of governing over the largest economy and third largest population in the world. Governor Newsom has also seen higher approval ratings since President Trump has taken office. The Public Policy Institute of California found his rating to be at 54%. This surge in the past year has a lot to do with the Governor being a vocal critic of President Trump and standing up to him. Most Democrats see President Trump as a threat to democracy. The American people are looking for someone to stand up to the President. For example, Gavin Newsom introduced Proposition 50, which allowed for a mid-decade redistricting by the state government to oppose red state redistricting. States like Texas started the issue by doing a mid-decade redistricting to give the Republican party five more safe seats. Opponents of the President will see this as a strength in Gavin Newsom’s ability to hold his own in a Presidential debate against one of the Trump disciples.
A weakness of Gavin Newsom is certain media coverage on the current state of California. For example, Fox News posted an article titled “California is broke, but it’s not too late for the rest of us”. In this article, Ted Jenkin makes claims about how Governor Newsom and state politicians have irresponsibly been spending money which has led to an increasing debt in the state. Whether this is fair or not due to money being used on social programs, the Republican Party of recent is very good at controlling the narrative around California. It isn’t just Fox News that isn’t very optimistic about California. The Public Policy Institute of California found that 66% of surveys are expecting “bad times” for the California economy in the next year, with 62% believing the state is in a recession. There is also an affordability crisis in California that can easily be exploited by Democratic Primary challengers and the Republican nominee. For instance, 1 out of every 5 California homes faced severe housing costs in 2019, which is defined as spending more than half of their income on housing. I see this as the main Achilles heel for Gavin Newsom. Conservative media like Fox News does an incredible job emphasizing this issue and directly blaming Gavin Newsom. In an interview from November of last year, Republican strategist Katie Zacharia attacked Governor Newsom and explained how he is trying to ignore the affordability crisis. According to her, and many other Republicans, this crisis is why many people have begun to leave the state to move to “red states.” Democratic primary challengers and Republican nominees will make the argument that if Newsom can’t or won’t do anything to make his state affordable, then how is he going to make the United States more affordable? Especially with the most important issue in the last election being the “...Highest Since Great Recession”, it is going to be important for Newsom to find a way to combat these attacks if he wants a chance at the presidency.
My third and final potential Democratic 2028 candidate is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. Shapiro is a moderate Democrat who has been serving as governor since 2023. An indicator that he could be eyeing a potential run in 2028 is that he has made some comments criticizing former Vice President Kamala Harris. He was in the running to be Kamala Harris’ Vice President for the 2024 election, but ultimately was not chosen. In her recent book 107 Days, she accuses Governor Shapiro of being more interested in the Vice President role than actually helping her defeat Donald Trump. The Atlantic asked him about this, to which he replied saying it was “complete bulls–” and that “...she’s trying to sell books and cover her a–”. He also goes on to claim that Harris asked whether he was an Israeli agent, leading him to wonder whether he was the only Vice Presidential candidate asked this question (he was the only Jewish prospect). With Vice President Harris’ missteps in handling her relationship with him, Governor Shapiro could be making these comments to separate himself from her and exhibit that he might not support her right out of the gate for the Democratic nomination.
One of his appeals as a candidate is that he is governor of a key swing state. In the 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, Shapiro won a commanding victory with 56.5% of the votes. According to CNN, he received the most votes for a governor in American history. His support has remained high in his first term, with Quinnipiac University finding that he has a 60% approval rating as of late last year. With his state being key in swinging the election in Donald Trump’s favor, these levels of belief are a key strength in the Democratic electorate believing he could beat President Trump’s successor. Another strength that the governor can highlight is his ability to cross the aisle and work with both parties. For example, he backed a Republican school voucher program, to some Democratic lawmakers’ chagrin. Americans have seen more extreme polarization over the past decade, to the point where everyday people have become more divided than ever. If United States voters in 2028 are looking for a President that is going to work to bring in certain ideas from both parties, this should be something that Shapiro looks to highlight
Like every candidate discussed in this article, Josh Shapiro’s strengths come with some key weaknesses. While attending college in 1993 at the University of Rochester, 20 year old Josh Shapiro wrote an article that stated there could never be a two state solution between Israel and Palestine. He even goes on to write that Palestinians are “too battle-minded” to be able to coexist alongside Israel. While he did explain in 2024 that he has since changed his mind, some voters may not be so forgiving. When looking back at what went wrong for the Democratic Party in the 2024 Presidential Election, the conflict in Gaza has to be near the very top. The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) conducted a survey of 1,575 people and found that 53.2% of American Muslim Voters voted for Dr. Jill Stein, 21.4% voted for Donald Trump, and 20.3% voted for Kamala Harris. This survey also found that almost 14% of the respondents did not vote at all. During that election, President Trump appealed to the voters by claiming that this conflict, along with the Russia-Ukraine War, would have never occurred under his leadership and that they would end on Day 1 of his administration. His appeal worked well enough that it swung votes away from Kamala Harris. Especially in the Democratic primary where young voters care a lot about this human rights violation, Josh Shapiro is going to need to prove to the electorate that he has actually changed his views from what is written in that article.
All of these individual strengths and weaknesses are going to be important for the candidates to address if they want to win the primary and general elections. However, the Democratic Party and its voters most important goal is to elect a majority of Democrats into both chambers of Congress and the White House. To do this, they are going to have to go through some major internal reconstructing when it comes to how they campaign.