The California Republican Party is Obsessed with Losing (Or So It Seems)

Art by Kaitlyn Tan.

In the current political landscape in the United States, California is considered one of the bluest of blue states you can get. Every statewide office is held by a Democrat, the state legislature boasts a Democratic supermajority, and Democratic candidates in nationwide elections usually enjoy a 15-20% advantage. Republicans in the state struggle to even have a chance of winning statewide offices. For example, in the 2024 race for the US Senate seat in California, it seems that the two candidates running against each other in the general election will be two Democrats. Furthermore, it seems that California is seen to have more of a “Democratic vibe” compared to other states. While some critics may label it a “socialist hellhole” where “freedom comes to die”, others see it as a progressive haven that experiments with forward-thinking policies. However, California was not always this way. This was, after all, the state that once was represented by Senator Richard Nixon and Governor Ronald Reagan – both Republican. In fact, from 1952 to 1988, Republicans consistently won in California, with the exception of Lyndon Johnson’s Democratic victory. So, what happened to transform California from such a reliable Republican stronghold to a Democratic supermajority? And why did state Republicans recently make another significant misstep by refusing to modernize their policy platform, potentially jeopardizing any chance at winning future elections? 

The answer to the first question is complex and has many factors, but one widely accepted explanation was Republicans choosing to support Proposition 187 in 1994. This divisive ballot measure would have denied public services to anyone who could not prove their citizenship or the citizenship of their children. This included non-emergency public healthcare, elementary through high school education, and access to public colleges and universities. Additionally, the proposition required state and local agencies to report any non-citizens to federal agencies to be deported. These policies were pushed under the guise of cutting government spending, a popular issue at the time. During the 1994 gubernatorial elections, the Republican candidate in the general election embraced the proposition, making it a central part of his campaign and emphasized that this policy was something that California Republicans truly believed in and would fight for. The measure passed with 59% of the vote, but it also triggered a massive shift in the political identity of the state. It alienated California’s growing-Latino population from the GOP and pushed them towards the Democratic Party, which opposed it. In the decade following the proposition, 1.8 million new voters registered, with 66% of those being Latino and 23% Asian. In this period, the growth rate of Latino registered voters exceeded the growth rate of the overall Latino population. To make matters worse for the Republicans, the measure was declared unconstitutional in 1997 by a federal judge. This ballot measure represented a turning point in California politics. In 1994, roughly half of elected offices in the state were held by Republicans, but by 2018, that number had plummeted to 20%. This ballot measure angered California’s growing minority population and pushed the state into the Democrat column where it has remained since. 

In the years following the fateful 1994 ballot proposition, Republicans in the state gradually lost power in the state—with the exception of the Govenator Arnold Schwarzenegger, who rose to power after a recall campaign of former Governor Gray Davis. However, in 2023, the party had a chance to change this. The party faced a crucial decision: whether to continue on their current path, which lacked the voter base necessary to overcome Democratic advantages or opt for a shift in policy positions to attract more moderate voters. In September, they were presented with a golden opportunity to shift their political fortunes. Moderates within the party proposed an amendment to their policy platform aimed at removing their opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage, with the goal of broadening their appeal. These amendments looked like they had a good chance of passing. While these platform changes may have not won the party any elections, they could have set the party on a more inclusive path. By embracing a more moderate stance, the California GOP could have potentially attracted fiscal conservatives who were previously deterred by the party's social policies—significantly expanding their voting base. This is evident by the recent switch of some Asian voters in San Francisco, who were vital in recalling the city District Attorney and Supervisor, which shows that they would possibly be open to a moderate Republican party. It seems evident that following down the far-right course the national Republican party had pursued since the early 1990s would only further alienate California voters. Passing these amendments would alter that, and allow for the California Republican party to have a better chance of being competitive in future elections. 

However, the California GOP decided to do just the opposite. Instead, the GOP has made a move that seems self-destructive and out of touch with the state’s political landscape. At the state party convention, the party voted down the amendments while embracing more anti-trans rhetoric in their platform. Some Republicans believed this strategy, framed as “parent rights” and “protecting children,” could attract moderate and independent voters – specifically Latino voters. But, California Republicans are failing to see that this is just not an issue that people really care about. Polling by the Public Policy Institute of California did not even have these issues while categorizing the ones that California voters prioritized. In contrast, abortion was a top issue to Californians, where 85% of voters said that the outcome of Proposition 1, a ballot measure to enshrine abortion protection in the state constitution, was important to them.

At the conference in September, speeches by many of the Republican candidates for president, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former president/four-time indictee Donald Trump, mentioned anti-trans policies and potential legislation, and urged the state Republicans to follow suit. As a result, there has been a push for three anti-trans ballot measures, such as one to restrict gender-affirming care for teens, which seems reminiscent of pushing unpopular social policies through a ballot measure such as in 1994. This approach to California politics makes no logical sense. Pushing these sort of far-right social policies, such as anti-trans legislation, while opposing moderate options will only serve to push even more voters towards the Democratic majority, and the self-destructive nature of the GOP continues. 

To succeed in statewide elections, the California Republican Party must learn from past mistakes, such as Proposition 187, and adopt a more inclusive and pragmatic approach that is in line with the state's political identity. Pushing away these moderate policy proposals and accepting ones from the far right will cause further deterioration of the Republican party. Not only will it push away potential new voters to expand the party’s base, it will further split the Republican party into the party of traditional institutionalists and the party of MAGA. Until then, state Republicans will continue to push potential new voters away and maintain their apparent obsession of losing elections. The California Republican party is no longer the party of Ronald Reagan and (pre-Watergate) Richard Nixon. The California Republican party is turning into the party of Trump, pushing election denial conspiracy theories. It is turning into the party of Kevin McCarthy, who was forced out of power by the hard-right members of the GOP for agreeing to a bipartisan deal with Democrats. The California GOP is turning into the party of losers.